October 2024

ICE Futures Singapore Monthly Report

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MACRO COMMENTARY

The MINI U.S. DOLLAR INDEX® FUTURES (SDX) ended October with a gain of 3.90% at 104.00, recovering some of the losses experienced in previous months. This bullish sentiment was driven by increased demand for the U.S. Dollar after strong economic data releases, including stronger-than-expected employment figures and retail sales data.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for September showed an increase of 254,000 new jobs (later revised to 223,000), exceeding market expectations of 140,000 and surpassing August's downwardly revised 78,000 jobs (initially reported as 142,000). The SDX showed strength and closed at 102.27, with a gain of 0.60% on the day.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement released confirmed the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75% - 5.00% in September 2024, marking the beginning of a new interest rate cutting cycle. The committee cited progress on inflation moving towards its 2% objective and a balance of risks to its employment and inflation goals as reasons for the cut. The FOMC also indicated expectations for additional rate cuts later in 2024 and into 2025, though fewer than markets had anticipated, the SDX closed at 102.48, with a gain of 0.23%.
  • Annual Core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, ticked up slightly to a rate of 3.3% for the 12-month period ending September, higher than market expectations of 3.2% and the prior two releases. This was accompanied by an easing in broader price pressures, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released dropped to 2.4% from 2.5% the prior month, albeit slightly higher than expected. The SDX closed the day with a gain of 0.34% at 102.83.
The MINI BRENT CRUDE FUTURES (BM) Brent crude futures (BM) jumped to a monthly high of $81.16 from the October 1st low of $69.91, retraced most of that move back to the lows at $70.28, and closed the month at $72.81, reflecting a 1.3% gain from the previous month's close.

  • The ongoing Middle East conflict involving Israel, Iran, and its allied groups continues to impact oil prices. Iran is anticipated to respond to Israel's October 25th military strikes on various Iranian, Iraqi, and Syrian military sites and assets. Oil market participants are bracing for higher oil prices in the coming days and weeks ahead. Iran, the third-largest oil producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produced approximately 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, accounting for about 3% of global oil production.
The COINDESK BITCOIN FUTURES (BMC) slipped at the start of the month but remained above $60,000, establishing a higher low above the August 5th low of $53,052. The price then trended upward, hitting a monthly peak of $73,039, just below the all-time high of $74,097. The contract ended at $73,039, a 14.5% increase from the previous month.

  • As digital assets gain traction through products like bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), central banks worldwide are increasingly exploring blockchain technology to develop and implement central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Recently, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) unveiled two key partnerships with the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and Brazil's Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) to further cross-border tokenization. These collaborations, part of HKMA’s Project Ensemble, aim to integrate CBDC infrastructures to facilitate tokenized cross-border transactions.

The MICRO ASIA TECH 30 INDEX FUTURES (ATI) briefly extended its upward momentum from September, peaking at $4,444, before partially retracing in October. It closed the month down 1.8% at $4,215 compared to the prior month.

  • Chinese component stocks ended mixed. Two stocks remained strong: Xiaomi Corp rose by 18.7%, and Meituan rose by 6.1%. The rest fell during the month, reversing gains seen in the prior month: NetEase by 17.7%, Kuaishou Technology by 16.3%, Baidu by 15.5%, Alibaba fell 14.0%, Bilibili by 12.0%, Sunny Optical Technology by 11.9%, Tencent by 9.0%, and JD.com by 6.9%.
  • Taiwan stock components were mainly higher. Hon Hai Precision Industry rose by 12.8%, MediaTek Inc. by 9.8%, Taiwan Semiconductor by 7.6%, and Delta Electronics by 6.2%. Only United Microelectronics Corp. fell by 10.5%.
  • Japanese components were mixed. Those components higher were Nintendo by 6.7%, Canon higher by 6.4%, Keyence by 2.1%, and Fujitsu by 0.9%. LY Holdings was flat for the month. Stocks closing lower included Tokyo Electron by 7.5%, NTT Data by 5.1%, Murata Manufacturing by 3.5%, Sony Group by 1.9%, and FujiFilm Holdings by 0.2.
  • Korean component stocks also ended mixed. SK Hynix rose by 6.7%, Kakao by 2.2%, and Naver Corp was slightly higher by 0.4%. Samsung SDI fell by 13.6%, and Samsung Electronics by 3.7%.

MINI U.S. DOLLAR INDEX® FUTURES
SYMBOL: SDX

CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • Thr 7 Nov Fed Interest Rates
  • Wed 13 Nov Consumer Price Index (Oct)
  • Fri 15 Nov Retail Sales (Oct)
  • Wed 27 Nov GDP Annualized (Q3) PREL & FOMC Minutes
MARKET COMMENTARY
October 2024 was a strong month for the U.S. Dollar, with the Mini U.S. Dollar Index ® Futures (SDX) showing consistent gains. The month began robustly, with the SDX closing up 2.06% at 102.27 in the first week, despite mixed economic indicators such as disappointing ISM Manufacturing data, better-than-expected ADP Employment Change and ISM Services data, and Nonfarm Payroll figures that exceeded forecasts, marking the strongest performance since March 2024. The SDX closed recording the strongest weekly performance of the year on the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands. The following week saw continued bullish sentiment, with the SDX closing up 0.45% at 102.73, buoyed by the FOMC Statement and inflation data.

The SDX traded higher during the third week of trading, despite experiencing a couple of down days. By the end of the week the SDX closed above the midpoint of the weekly Bollinger Bands for the first time since June 2024, ending up 0.64% at 103.39. Positive retail sales data contributed to this performance. The following week the SDX maintained its upward trend, with the SDX gapping up above the previous week's high to close the week up 0.71% at 104.12.

The final days of October saw the SDX reach a high of 104.43 on the 28th, just above a daily resistance area of 104.31 - 104.42 before experiencing some selling pressure. Despite this late pullback, towards the end of the month the Mini U.S. Dollar Index ® Futures ended October with a substantial gain of 3.90%, closing at 104.00.

Daily technical indicators of SDX prices indicated a strong buy overall based on the moving averages. The technical oscillators indicated neutral conditions, which could prompt investors to consider waiting for a pullback before seeking trading opportunities. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between 105.81 to 102.06 within the next 28 days. Investors or traders could consider the weekly support (101.80 to 99.92) or resistance (112.95 to 110.64) areas for planning their entries or exits, depending on their trading strategies. The SDX reverted to an uptrend on the daily timeframe and traded sideways on the weekly.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

MINI BRENT CRUDE FUTURES
SYMBOL: BM

CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • OPEC+ 56th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee Meeting (JMMC) is scheduled for 1 December.
  • The 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) is scheduled for 1 December.
MARKET COMMENTARY
Brent crude futures (BM) jumped to a monthly high of $81.16 from the October 1st low of $69.91, retraced most of that move back to the lows at $70.28, and closed the month at $72.81, reflecting a 1.3% gain from the previous month's close.

The ongoing Middle East conflict involving Israel, Iran, and its allied groups continues to impact oil prices. Iran is anticipated to respond to Israel's October 25th military strikes on various Iranian, Iraqi, and Syrian military sites and assets. Oil market participants are bracing for higher oil prices in the coming days and weeks ahead. Iran, the third-largest oil producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produced approximately 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, accounting for about 3% of global oil production.

Daily technical indicators of oil futures (BM) prices indicated a strong market bias toward selling. Technical oscillators in the prior month pointed towards a weak market state. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $61.47 to $84.15 ($22.68) in the next 29 days. Daily support ($63.28 to $64.14) or weekly resistance ($76.58 to $80.93) areas could be considered by investors or traders in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies. Weekly chart prices were sideward, holding between $70 and $99.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

COINDESK BITCOIN FUTURES
SYMBOL: BMC

CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • 2028 Bitcoin Halving event

MARKET COMMENTARY
Bitcoin futures (MCB) slipped at the start of the month but remained above $60,000, establishing a higher low above the August 5th low of $53,052. The price then trended upward, hitting a monthly peak of $73,039, just below the all-time high of $74,097. The contract ended at $73,039, a 14.5% increase from the previous month.

As digital assets gain traction through products like bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), central banks worldwide are increasingly exploring blockchain technology to develop and implement central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Recently, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) unveiled two key partnerships with the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and Brazil's Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) to further cross-border tokenization. These collaborations, part of HKMA’s Project Ensemble, aim to integrate CBDC infrastructures to facilitate tokenized cross-border transactions.

Daily technical indicators of MCB prices indicated strong buying price action for daily and weekly moving averages. The technical oscillators indicated mostly favorable buying market conditions. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $58,908 to $87,172 ($28,264) in the next 29 days. Investors or traders could consider the weekly support area ($55,445 to $59,025) in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

MICRO ASIA TECH 30 INDEX FUTURES
SYMBOL: ATI

CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • Sat 9 November China CPI (Oct)
  • Wed 20 November PBOC Interest Rate Decision
  • Sat 30 November China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
MARKET COMMENTARY
ATI briefly extended its upward momentum from September, peaking at $4,444, before partially retracing in October. It closed the month down 1.8% at $4,215 compared to the prior month.

Chinese component stocks ended mixed. Two stocks remained strong: Xiaomi Corp rose by 18.7%, and Meituan rose by 6.1%. The rest fell during the month, reversing gains seen in the prior month: NetEase by 17.7%, Kuaishou Technology by 16.3%, Baidu by 15.5%, Alibaba fell 14.0%, Bilibili by 12.0%, Sunny Optical Technology by 11.9%, Tencent by 9.0%, and JD.com by 6.9%.

Taiwan stock components were mainly higher. Hon Hai Precision Industry rose by 12.8%, MediaTek Inc. by 9.8%, Taiwan Semiconductor by 7.6%, and Delta Electronics by 6.2%. Only United Microelectronics Corp. fell by 10.5%.

Japanese components were mixed. Those components higher were Nintendo by 6.7%, Canon higher by 6.4%, Keyence by 2.1%, and Fujitsu by 0.9%. LY Holdings was flat for the month. Stocks closing lower included Tokyo Electron by 7.5%, NTT Data by 5.1%, Murata Manufacturing by 3.5%, Sony Group by 1.9%, and FujiFilm Holdings by 0.2.

Korean component stocks also ended mixed. SK Hynix rose by 6.7%, Kakao by 2.2%, and Naver Corp was slightly higher by 0.4%. Samsung SDI fell by 13.6%, and Samsung Electronics by 3.7%.

Daily and weekly moving average technical indicators of ATI prices indicated mostly strong buying market conditions during the month. Technical oscillators indicated mixed market conditions last month. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $3,862 to $4,566 ($1,032) in the next 29 days. Weekly support ($3,885 to $3,974) or resistance ($4,403 to $4,594) areas could be considered by investors or traders in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)
Mini Malaysian Ringgit/U.S. Dollar Futures contract with a $50,000 Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) contract size is cash-settled. Open contracts are marked-to-market daily. Clients could leverage this and other emerging market foreign exchange contracts such as the Mini U.S. Dollar/Singapore Dollar, Mini Indonesian Rupiah/U.S. Dollar Futures, Mini Taiwan Dollar/U.S. Dollar, or Mini Korean Won/U.S. Dollar in their trading strategies or hedging. The reduced product size allows clients to optimize their capital exposure allocation and flexibility to utilize financial leverage across multiple products, giving portfolio diversification opportunities to the client.
Source: TradingView | Average True Range: using daily ATR (14) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily and  weekly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows:
red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

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Risk Considerations for Retail Investors or Users
Futures contracts based on bitcoin may pose specific risks. Such risks may arise from greater volatility in prices resulting from a range of factors. Those risks could in turn affect financial outcomes associated with maintaining required margins or any losses at final contract settlement. Accordingly, such products may not be suitable for a retail investor or user, and such person may wish to approach their broker to assess his/her suitability to transact in the product.

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