March 2024

ICE Futures Singapore Monthly Report

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MACRO COMMENTARY

The MINI U.S. DOLLAR INDEX ® FUTURES (SDX) closed higher for the third consecutive month of the year as demand for the U.S. Dollar continued. The SDX closed the month with a gain of 0.16% at 104.27.

  • An unexpected rise in Nonfarm Payrolls after 275,000 new jobs were added in February, surpassing the expected 200,000 and exceeding the significantly downwardly revised January figure of 229,000. Following this news the SDX closed with a loss of 0.08% at 102.69.
  • Core Inflation, excluding food and energy, eased to a near three-year low of 3.8% for the period 12-month ending February, although slightly above the market expectations of 3.7%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released showed a higher than expected 3.2% increase in February for the 12-month period compared with 3.1% the prior month. The SDX closed the day with a gain of 0.08% at 102.94.FOMC Minutes released on February 21st reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50%. The meeting highlighted the significance of observing the economic data in their decision-making process regarding future rate adjustments. They also shared their caution of lowering rates too quickly although expressed a sense of optimism. The SDX closed the day at 103.91 with a gain of 0.06%.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on March 20th its decision to hold the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50%. The SDX closed the day at 103.05 with a loss of 0.42%.

The COINDESK BITCOIN FUTURES (BMC) rose to new highs, surging past $70,000. Buyers continued the intense buying pressure seen in the prior month to close at $71,472, a gain of 16.1% compared to the preceding month's close. In focus for April is the much anticipated “halving” of the bitcoin miner reward from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins.

  • Bitcoin halving takes place every 210,000 blocks. This occurrence is anticipated in April 2024, coinciding with a block height of 840,000. During a “halving”, the reward for miners decreases for validating bitcoin transactions. Historically, there had been a noted correlation between halving events and subsequent increases in the price of bitcoin. The price had surged approximately six months after the halving events of 2012, 2017, and 2020.

The MICRO ASIA TECH 30 INDEX FUTURES (ATI) continued to trend higher during the month, with a gain of 7.1% compared to the month prior. For the quarter, the index was higher by 9.0%.

  • Chinese component stocks ended the first quarter mixed, with many stocks rising in double digits: Meituan gained 21.3%, followed closely by JD.com, which rose 21.2%. Bilibili rose by 15.2%, Xiaomi Corp was up 13.0%, and Kuaishou Technology was up by 10.2%. Up by single digits were Tencent, which rose 9.6%, and Baidu, which rose 3.2%. Lower this month was Sunny Optical Technology, which fell 21.4%; NetEase, which fell by 7.6%; and Alibaba, which was lower by 3.6%.
  • Taiwan stock components were all higher. Hon Hai Precision Industry jumped significantly by 45.6%, Delta Electronics by 15.8%, Taiwan Semiconductor by 12.9%, United Microelectronics Corp higher by 6.9%, and MediaTek Inc. by 4.8%.
  • Japanese components were mixed for March. Tokyo Electron increased by 7.3%, Fujitsu by 6.5% (stocks split 10:1), FujiFilm Holdings gained 6.2% (stock split 3:1), Canon by 2.8%, and Sony Group slightly higher by 0.3%. The remainder fell: Murata Manufacturing by 6.6%, Z Holdings by 6.1%, Nintendo down 2.4%, Keyence by 0.7%, and NTT Data down by 0.3%.
  • Korean component stocks were mostly higher, except Naver Corp, which lost 3.9%. Samsung SDI rose by 24.9%, SK Hynix higher by 17.2%, Samsung Electronics increased by 12.3%, and Kakao marginally higher by 0.8%.
The MINI BRENT CRUDE FUTURES (BM) moved lower in the first eight trading days of the month and higher throughout the remainder. Brent closed the month at $87.00, representing a 6.2% increase.

  • Ukraine sent drones to attack Tatneft’s Taneco oil refinery, Russia’s third largest refinery with a capacity of refining 340,000 barrels per day (bpd). The attack is an attempt to reduce Russia’s revenue from funding its war against Ukraine. Analysts estimate the impact on global oil prices could cause them to rise between $3-$4 per barrel. As a result, the United States has urged Ukraine to halt such strikes outside of its territory.
  • The United States' oil exports reached new highs, with an average of 4.1 million bpd in 2023, or 13% higher than in 2022, according to the United States Energy Information Authority (EIA). European countries and India have benefited from these exports as they diversify their supplier base away from Russia and traditional OPEC countries like Nigeria.

MINI U.S. DOLLAR INDEX ® FUTURES
SYMBOL: SDX

CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:
  • Fri 5 Apr Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
  • Wed 10 Apr Consumer Price Index (Mar) & FOMC Minutes
  • Mon 15 Apr Retail Sales (Mar)
  • Thr 25 Apr GDP Annualized (Q1) PREL
MARKET COMMENTARY
The SDX declined on the first day of March trading after the release of negative economic data weakened the demand for the U.S. Dollar, the SDX closed with a loss of 0.29%. The following week ADP Employment Change numbers missed expectations which led to a drop of 0.42% on the day and a close below the daily 30 EMA, the first time since mid-January 2024. The bearish momentum continued throughout the week, ending with the release of Nonfarm Payrolls, while the data surpassed expectations there was an uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. After missing a daily support area at 102.35 – 102.15 during trading on March 8th the SDX pierced the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Band where the demand for the U.S. Dollar returned. The SDX closed the week at 102.69 with a loss of 1.07%, the largest losing week in 2024.

The U.S. Dollar bulls gained momentum largely throughout the week of March 11th, with the strongest daily performance of the week on March 14th, after Retail Sales expanded during February subsequent to January’s decline. The SDX closed the day with a gain of 0.56% to end the week at 103.42 with a gain of 0.71%.

The Fed announced the latest interest rate decision on March 20th holding the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% - 5.50%. Following the announcement the demand for the U.S. Dollar weakened and the SDX closed with a loss of 0.42%, to mark the only down day of the week, a move which was reversed the following day. The SDX closed the week at 104.18 with a gain of 0.74%.

During the final week of March trading the SDX pulled back to a low of 103.71 before trading higher to close the week with a 0.09% gain. The Mini U.S. Dollar Index ® Futures closed the month at 104.27 with a gain of 0.16%.

Based on the technical indicators the SDX was in an uptrend on the daily and weekly timeframe.

Daily technical indicators of SDX prices indicated strong buy overall based on the moving averages. The technical oscillators indicated both buy and neutral conditions, which could prompt investors to consider waiting for a pullback before seeking trading opportunities. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between 106.04 to 102.51 within the next 30 days. Investors or traders could consider the weekly support (102.31 to 101.82) or resistance (106.93 to 105.16) areas for planning their entries or exits, depending on their trading strategies.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

COINDESK BITCOIN FUTURES
SYMBOL: BMC

CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • April 2024 (Spring) bitcoin halving event
MARKET COMMENTARY
Bitcoin futures (BMC) rose to new highs, surging past $70,000. Buyers continued the intense buying pressure seen in the prior month to close at $71,472, a gain of 16.1% compared to the preceding month's close. In focus for April is the much anticipated “halving” of the bitcoin miner reward from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins.

Bitcoin halving takes place every 210,000 blocks. This occurrence is anticipated in April 2024, coinciding with a block height of 840,000. During a halving, the reward for miners decreases for validating bitcoin transactions. Historically, there had been a noted correlation between halving events and subsequent increases in the price of bitcoin. The price had surged approximately six months after the halving events of 2012, 2017, and 2020.

Daily technical indicators of BMC prices indicated strong buying pressure based on the daily and weekly moving averages. The technical oscillators indicated neutral short-term and long-term conditions. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $56,825 to $86,120 ($29,294) in the next 34 days. The weekly support area ($50,850 to $52,670) could be considered by investors or traders in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

MICRO ASIA TECH 30 INDEX FUTURES
SYMBOL: ATI

CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • Thr 11 Apr China CPI (Mar)
  • Tue 16 Apr China GDP (Q1) & Retail Sales (Mar)
  • Tue 30 Apr China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
MARKET COMMENTARY
ATI continued to trend higher during the month, with a gain of 7.1% compared to the month prior. For the quarter, the index was higher by 9.0%.

Chinese component stocks ended the first quarter mixed, with many stocks rising in double digits: Meituan gained 21.3%, followed closely by JD.com, which rose 21.2%. Bilibili rose by 15.2%, Xiaomi Corp was up 13.0%, and Kuaishou Technology was up by 10.2%. Up by single digits were Tencent, which rose 9.6%, and Baidu, which rose 3.2%. Lower this month was Sunny Optical Technology, which fell 21.4%; NetEase, which fell by 7.6%; and Alibaba, which was lower by 3.6%.

Taiwan stock components were all higher. Hon Hai Precision Industry jumped significantly by 45.6%, Delta Electronics by 15.8%, Taiwan Semiconductor by 12.9%, United Microelectronics Corp higher by 6.9%, and MediaTek Inc. by 4.8%.

Japanese components were mixed for March. Tokyo Electron increased by 7.3%, Fujitsu by 6.5% (stocks split 10:1), FujiFilm Holdings gained 6.2% (stock split 3:1), Canon by 2.8%, and Sony Group slightly higher by 0.3%. The remainder fell: Murata Manufacturing by 6.6%, Z Holdings by 6.1%, Nintendo down 2.4%, Keyence by 0.7%, and NTT Data down by 0.3%.

Korean component stocks were mostly higher, except Naver Corp, which lost 3.9%. Samsung SDI rose by 24.9%, SK Hynix higher by 17.2%, Samsung Electronics increased by 12.3%, and Kakao marginally higher by 0.8%.

Daily and weekly moving average technical indicators of ATI prices indicated strong buying market conditions during the month. Technical oscillators showed mostly buying market conditions last month. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $3,501 to $3,969 ($468) in the next 34 days. Weekly support ($3,596 to $3,700) or resistance ($4,283 to $4,439) areas could be considered by investors or traders in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies. Weekly chart prices were sideward, trending between $2,980 and $3,600.

Index Composition: 37% China, 23% Japan, 23% Taiwan and 17% South Korea
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

MINI BRENT CRUDE FUTURES
SYMBOL: BM

CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • The 53rd Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled for 03 April 2024.
  • The 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) will be held on Sat 1 June 2024 in Vienna.
MARKET COMMENTARY
Brent crude futures (BM) moved lower in the first eight trading days of the month and higher throughout the remainder. Brent closed the month at $87.00, representing a 6.2% increase.

Ukraine sent drones to attack Tatneft’s Taneco oil refinery, Russia’s third largest refinery with a capacity of refining 340,000 barrels per day (bpd). The attack is an attempt to reduce Russia’s revenue from funding its war against Ukraine. Analysts estimate the impact on global oil prices could cause them to rise between $3-$4 per barrel. As a result, the United States has urged Ukraine to halt such strikes outside of its territory.

The United States' oil exports reached new highs, with an average of 4.1 million bpd in 2023, or 13% higher than in 2022, according to the United States Energy Information Authority (EIA). European countries and India have benefited from these exports as they diversify their supplier base away from Russia and traditional OPEC countries like Nigeria.

Daily technical indicators of oil futures (BM) prices indicated a continued strong market bias toward buying. Technical oscillators in the prior month pointed towards a buying state of the market. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $80.36 to $93.64 ($13.28) in the next 34 days. Weekly support ($77.88 to $79.10) or resistance ($87.05 to $90.13) areas could be considered by investors or traders in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies. Weekly chart prices were sideward, trending between $72 and $99.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)
The Micro MSCI Europe Index Futures (SME) contract with a notional contract size of approximately USD 20,000* is cash-settled.  Retail and professional investors can participate in these markets with minimal upfront deposits and experience a liquid intraday order book provided by appointed market makers during Asian trading hours.

MSCI Europe Index constituents include large corporations in consumer staples (Nestle), information technology (ASML Holdings), consumer discretionary (LVMH Moet Hennessy), industrials (Siemens), and health care (Roche).
Source: TradingView | Average True Range: using daily ATR (14) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily and  weekly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows:
red = resistance levels & green = support levels)
CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS

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