June 2024

ICE Futures Singapore Monthly Report

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MACRO COMMENTARY

The MINI U.S. DOLLAR INDEX® FUTURES (SDX) rebounded in June after the demand for the U.S. Dollar returned following a disappointing May. The renewed demand for the U.S. Dollar reflected a shift in market sentiment which led to the SDX closing June with a gain of 0.88% at 105.55.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls recorded an unexpected rise in May after 272,000 new jobs were added, surpassing market expectations of 185,000. This robust increase also outshone the downwardly revised April numbers of 165,000. The labor market's surprised strength helped propel the SDX to close the day with a gain of 0.77%, at 104.86, the strongest daily performance of the month.
  • Core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, unexpectedly fell to a rate of 3.4% for the 12-month period ending May, below market expectations of 3.5% and dropping from April’s rate of 3.6%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released also surprised the markets after it ticked lower than expected to 3.3% from 3.4% the prior month. This lower-than-anticipated inflation data contributed towards the SDX closing the day with a loss of 0.56% at 104.62.
  • The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, despite recent progress with inflation falling. The FOMC signaled a more cautious approach to rate cuts, projecting only one potential cut in 2024, down from the three cuts initially anticipated in March. The committee now foresees four rate cuts in 2025. This decision was announced on the same day as softer inflation data was released and contributed towards the decline in the SDX, which closed with a loss on the day.
The COINDESK BITCOIN FUTURES (BMC) saw price retrace towards the low set in early May at $57,297, set a monthly low in June just above the $60,000 level at $60,795, and closed at $61,707, or 10.3% lower from the May close.

  • Since the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January, total net assets have grown to around $55 billion as of June. The five largest ETFs are those managed by BlackRock (IBIT), which had $19.4 billion in net assets; Grayscale (GBTC), which had $17.4 billion; Fidelity (FBTC), which had $10.7 billion; ARK Invest (ARKB), which had $2.9 billion, and Bitwise (BITB), which had $2.4 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has grown the fastest over the last six months, overtaking the GrayScale Bitcoin Trust for the top spot.

The MICRO ASIA TECH 30 INDEX FUTURES (ATI) continued its trend higher and gained 7.8% compared to the month prior. Markets ended mixed across Asia, with individual index components performing strongly, which led to the overall positive finish to the monthly close of the index itself.

  • Chinese component stocks ended mixed: Bilibili rose 14.1%, followed by Sunny Optical Technology, which rose 12.3%, NetEase by 8.4%, Meituan by 5.7%, and Tencent higher by 3.5%. Several stocks ended lower: Xiaomi Corp by 5.7%, Alibaba by 5.9%, Baidu by 8.8%, JD.com by 9.3%, and Kuaishou Technology down by 16.8%.
  • Taiwan stock components were all higher. Hon Hai Precision Industry by 24.4%, Delta Electronics by 19.2%, Taiwan Semiconductor by 17.7%, MediaTek Inc. by 13.4%, and United Microelectronics Corp by 1.3%.
  • Japanese components were mixed this month, led higher by Murata Manufacturing by 12.0% and Fujitsu up by 11.0%. Also higher were Tokyo Electron by 3.8%, LY Holdings by 4.3%, FujiFilm Holdings by 5.1%, and Sony Group by 5.8%. The remainder fell: Keyence was marginally lower, by 0.2%, NTT Data by 1.9%, and Canon by 4.3%. Nintendo ended the month flat.
  • Korean component stocks ended mostly lower except SK Hynix, which rose 25.0%, and Samsung Electronics, higher by 10.9%. Naver Corp lost 1.9%, Samsung SDI fell 5.5%, and Kakao was down 6.1%.
The MINI BRENT CRUDE FUTURES (BM) rebounded strongly in June from the low of $77.52. The price closed at $85.00, representing a 4.8% increase from the prior month's close.

  • Seasonal influences may contribute to rising crude oil prices in the coming months, particularly with the onset of the summer driving season in the United States. Analysts are closely monitoring U.S. crude oil inventory levels for indications of changing demand, which could impact prices in either direction. Additionally, China's manufacturing activity increased in June, indicating potential economic recovery and the possibility for a future rise in crude oil demand.
MINI U.S. DOLLAR INDEX® FUTURES
SYMBOL: SDX
CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • Thr 11 Jul Consumer Price Index (Jun)
  • Tue 16 Jul Retail Sales (Jun)
  • Thr 25 Jul GDP Annualized (Q2) PREL
  • Wed 31 Jul Fed Interest Rate Decision

MARKET COMMENTARY
On June 3rd, the first day of trading, demand for the Mini U.S. Dollar Index® Futures (SDX) weakened following disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI data which led to a loss of 0.52% on the day. After almost reaching a support area at 103.95 - 103.72 the next day, demand returned, leading to two consecutive days of gains before the SDX pulled back on June 6th. Despite the pullback the SDX recovered on June 7th to post the strongest daily performance of the month following the release of strong Nonfarm Payrolls data. The SDX closed the week at 104.86 with a 0.22% gain.

The bullish momentum continued into the following week until the release of softer than expected inflation data and the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady for the seventh consecutive meeting on June 12th. The SDX closed with a loss of 0.56%. However, the U.S. Dollar bulls returned on June 13th and the SDX closed higher for two straight days. The SDX spiked through the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands and pulled back slightly to end the week at 105.55 with a 0.66% gain.

On June 17th the bearish pressure drove the SDX lower for three consecutive days before it found support at the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands. However, demand surged on June 20th, resulting in the week's strongest daily performance with a 0.33% gain. Despite the early selling pressure in the week the SDX closed the week at 105.45 with a gain of 0.10%. The SDX lost ground on June 24th and closed with a loss of 0.31%, however the bulls returned, and the market reversed to reach a high of 105.78 before pulling back on the final two trading days of the month. The SDX closed the final trading week with a gain of 0.10%. The Mini U.S. Dollar Index ® Futures closed the month at 105.55 with a gain of 0.88%.

Daily technical indicators of SDX prices indicated strong buy overall based on the moving averages. The technical oscillators indicated both buy and neutral conditions, which could prompt investors to consider waiting for a pullback before seeking trading opportunities. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between 107.32 to 103.28 within the next 31 days. Investors or traders could consider the weekly support (102.31 to 101.82) or resistance (110.64 to 112.95) areas for planning their entries or exits, depending on their trading strategies. The SDX was in an uptrend on the daily and weekly timeframes.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)
COINDESK BITCOIN FUTURES
SYMBOL: BMC
CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • 2028 Bitcoin Halving event
MARKET COMMENTARY
Bitcoin futures (BMC) saw price retrace towards the low set in early May at $57,297, set a monthly low in June just above the $60,000 level at $60,795, and closed at $61,707, or 10.3% lower from the May close.

Since the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January, total net assets have grown to around $55 billion as of June. The five largest ETFs are those managed by BlackRock (IBIT), which had $19.4 billion in net assets; Grayscale (GBTC), which had $17.4 billion; Fidelity (FBTC), which had $10.7 billion; ARK Invest (ARKB), which had $2.9 billion, and Bitwise (BITB), which had $2.4 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has grown the fastest over the last six months, overtaking the GrayScale Bitcoin Trust for the top spot.

Daily technical indicators of BMC prices indicated short-term selling price action based on the daily moving averages and buying price bias for the weekly moving averages. The technical oscillators indicated neutral short-term and long-term conditions. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $53,420 to $74,535 ($21,114) in the next 31 days. Investors or traders could consider the weekly support area ($50,850 to $52,670) or daily resistance area ($65,033 to $66,528) in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)
MICRO ASIA TECH 30 INDEX FUTURES
SYMBOL: ATI
CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • Wed 10 July China CPI (Jun)
  • Mon 22 July PBOC Interest Rate Decision
  • Wed 31 July China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

MARKET COMMENTARY
ATI continued its trend higher and gained 7.8% compared to the month prior. Markets ended mixed across Asia, with individual index components performing strongly, which led to the overall positive finish to the monthly close of the index itself.

Chinese component stocks ended mixed: Bilibili rose 14.1%, followed by Sunny Optical Technology, which rose 12.3%, NetEase by 8.4%, Meituan by 5.7%, and Tencent higher by 3.5%. Several stocks ended lower: Xiaomi Corp by 5.7%, Alibaba by 5.9%, Baidu by 8.8%, JD.com by 9.3%, and Kuaishou Technology down by 16.8%.

Taiwan stock components were all higher. Hon Hai Precision Industry by 24.4%, Delta Electronics by 19.2%, Taiwan Semiconductor by 17.7%, MediaTek Inc. by 13.4%, and United Microelectronics Corp by 1.3%.

Japanese components were mixed this month, led higher by Murata Manufacturing by 12.0% and Fujitsu up by 11.0%. Also higher were Tokyo Electron by 3.8%, LY Holdings by 4.3%, FujiFilm Holdings by 5.1%, and Sony Group by 5.8%. The remainder fell: Keyence was marginally lower, by 0.2%, NTT Data by 1.9%, and Canon by 4.3%. Nintendo ended the month flat.

Korean component stocks ended mostly lower except SK Hynix, which rose 25.0%, and Samsung Electronics, higher by 10.9%. Naver Corp lost 1.9%, Samsung SDI fell 5.5%, and Kakao was down 6.1%.

Daily and weekly moving average technical indicators of ATI prices indicated strong buying market conditions during the month. Technical oscillators turned toward neutral market conditions last month. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $3,751 to $4,335 ($584) in the next 34 days. Weekly support ($3,162 to $3,390) or daily resistance ($4,342 to $4,439) areas could be considered by investors or traders in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies.

Index Composition: 37% China, 23% Japan, 23% Taiwan and 17% South Korea
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)
MINI BRENT CRUDE FUTURES
SYMBOL: BM
CONDITIONS:
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS:

  • The 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) is scheduled for 1 December.
MARKET COMMENTARY
Brent crude futures (BM) rebounded strongly in June from the low of $77.52. The price closed at $85.00, representing a 4.8% increase from the prior month's close.

Seasonal influences may contribute to rising crude oil prices in the coming months, particularly with the onset of the summer driving season in the United States. Analysts are closely monitoring U.S. crude oil inventory levels for indications of changing demand, which could impact prices in either direction. Additionally, China's manufacturing activity increased in June, indicating potential economic recovery and the possibility for a future rise in crude oil demand.

Daily technical indicators of oil futures (BM) prices indicated a market bias toward buying. Technical oscillators in the prior month pointed towards a neutral state of the market. Using historical volatility, the price from the prior month’s close could range between $78.71 to $91.29 ($12.58) in the next 34 days. Weekly support ($77.88 to $79.10) or resistance ($89.42 to $91.17) areas could be considered by investors or traders in planning their entries or exits based on their trading strategies. Weekly chart prices are sideward, trending between $72 and $99.
Source: TradingView | Events Source: FXStreet | Conditions Table: using daily SMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), EMA (10, 20, 30,50, 100, 200), Ichimoku Cloud (9, 26, 52), VWMA (20), HullMA (9), RSI (14), Stochastic (14, 3, 3), CCI (20), ADX (14, 14), Awesome Oscillator, Momentum (10), MACD (12, 26, 9), Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14), Williams %R (14), Bulls and Bears Power and Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28) | Statistical Ranges: projecting daily Historical Volatility (21, 42, 63) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily, weekly and monthly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows: red = resistance levels & green = support levels)
Mini Brent Crude Futures contract with contract size of 100 barrels is cash-settled based on the ICE Futures Europe Brent Crude Futures contract which has a contract size of 1,000 barrels. The reduced product size allows clients to optimize their capital exposure allocation and flexibility to utilize financial leverage across multiple products giving portfolio diversification opportunities to the client.
Source: TradingView | Average True Range: using daily ATR (14) | Support & Resistance Levels: using AutoUFOs® (0.5) applied to daily and  weekly timeframes (plotted as dotted lines that represent relevant support and resistance price zones colored as follows:
red = resistance levels & green = support levels)

Do you have any question or need further details?
Limitations
Risk Considerations for Retail Investors or Users
Futures contracts based on bitcoin may pose specific risks. Such risks may arise from greater volatility in prices resulting from a range of factors. Those risks could in turn affect financial outcomes associated with maintaining required margins or any losses at final contract settlement. Accordingly, such products may not be suitable for a retail investor or user, and such person may wish to approach their broker to assess his/her suitability to transact in the product.

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